A leaked German military report has revealed Germany’s top military planners believe the breakup of the EU by 2040 is a conceivable eventuality – given the apparently irresistible rise of euroskeptic parties across Europe, such fears could be well-founded.
The Bundeswehr believes an end to the European Union in its current form in decades to come is entirely plausible, according to “Strategic Perspective 2040” — a 102-page report speculating on how global economic, military, cultural and social trends, and international conflicts, could shape German security policy in future.
The document was released for internal use by the Bundesministerium der Verteidigung (Ministry of Defense) and kept under wraps subsequently, although German daily Der Spiegel obtained a copy through undisclosed channels.
In seeking to assess the Bundeswehr’s potential future needs in respect of funding, equipment and size, it outlines six scenarios, one of which is titled, The EU in Disintegration and Germany in Reactive Mode.
The report’s authors assume a worst-case-scenario, in which a “multiple confrontations” arise in a world where the international order had eroded after “decades of instability,” value systems worldwide diverge and globalization has halted.
Other speculative scenarios are less apocalyptic, but nonetheless fairly dire — another, titled, West to the East, foresees some eastern EU countries freezing the pace of European integration, and others “joining the Eastern bloc” under the de facto protection of Russia.
In another, Multipolar Competition, extremism is on the rise across the continent, and some EU partners “even occasionally” seek to emulate Russia’s “state capitalist model.”
Just two of the scenarios envisaged a more peaceful world in future.
The simulations were formulated and investigated by scientists in the Federal Armed Forces Planning Office.